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            We report a data-parsimonious machine learning model for short-term forecasting of solar irradiance. The model follows the convolutional neural network – long-short term memory architecture. Its inputs include sky camera images that are reduced to scalar features to meet data transmission constraints. The model focuses on predicting the deviation of irradiance from the persistence of cloudiness (POC) model. Inspired by control theory, a noise signal input is used to capture the presence of unknown and/or unmeasured input variables and is shown to improve model predictions, often considerably. Five years of data from the NREL Solar Radiation Research Laboratory were used to create three rolling train-validate sets and determine the best representations for time, the optimal span of input measurements, and the most impactful model input data (features). For the chosen validation data, the model achieves a mean absolute error of 74.29 W/m2 over a time horizon of up to two hours, compared to a baseline 134.35 W/m2 using the POC model.more » « less
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            Hammond, Joshua E.; Vernon, Cory A.; Okeson, Trent J.; Barrett, Benjamin J.; Arce, Samuel; Newell, Valerie; Janson, Joseph; Franke, Kevin W.; Hedengren, John D. (, Remote Sensing)Remote sensing with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) facilitates photogrammetry for environmental and infrastructural monitoring. Models are created with less computational cost by reducing the number of photos required. Optimal camera locations for reducing the number of photos needed for structure-from-motion (SfM) are determined through eight mathematical set-covering algorithms as constrained by solve time. The algorithms examined are: traditional greedy, reverse greedy, carousel greedy (CG), linear programming, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing, genetic, and ant colony optimization. Coverage and solve time are investigated for these algorithms. CG is the best method for choosing optimal camera locations as it balances number of photos required and time required to calculate camera positions as shown through an analysis similar to a Pareto Front. CG obtains a statistically significant 3.2 fewer cameras per modeled area than base greedy algorithm while requiring just one additional order of magnitude of solve time. For comparison, linear programming is capable of fewer cameras than base greedy but takes at least three orders of magnitude longer to solve. A grid independence study serves as a sensitivity analysis of the CG algorithms α (iteration number) and β (percentage to be recalculated) parameters that adjust traditional greedy heuristics, and a case study at the Rock Canyon collection dike in Provo, UT, USA, compares the results of all eight algorithms and the uniqueness (in terms of percentage comparisons based on location/angle metadata and qualitative visual comparison) of each selected set. Though this specific study uses SfM, the principles could apply to other instruments such as multi-spectral cameras or aerial LiDAR.more » « less
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